"Nobody knows anything"

- William Goldman

I had the pleasure of attending a Q&A with William Goldman and John Cleese last week, an entertaining couple of hours all around. The audience was full of working and aspiring screenwriters, and the common theme throughout most of the questions being asked was, "What should I be doing to best advance my career?"

Unfortunately, the common theme through most of the answers to these questions was, "I don't know."

They weren't being flip or disrespectful, in fact they seemed sympathetic and genuinely sorry they couldn't provide better advice. The realities in our current production climate, especially in Hollywood, are that things are terribly, terribly difficult for all writers, doubly or triply-so for unproven writers. Budgets are expanding for a variety of reasons, along with risk. The number of projects being developed is shrinking, along with potential returns. To top it all off, nobody knows what's going to work.

I agree with Mr. Goldman in his observation that the only real star we have left is Will Smith. Certainly we can name any number of stars: Tom Hanks, Adam Sandler, Johnny Depp – but nobody pulls anything resembling a guaranteed box office return. The star system upon which Hollywood films relies is falling apart.

The variety of genres being produced is also shrinking. Major and mini-majors are more and more focused on the large, global franchise films – because these are increasingly the only profitable films. Smaller films, while never strong box-office contenders, used to have a more well-defined business model. Today fewer and fewer are able to pull enough of an audience to justify their meager production budgets. As a result, independent production companies are only really interested in a small range of film types: high-concept and broad comedies. Other films don’t justify their marketing and distribution costs even if you are able to garner interest from a distributor. First-time writers have even fewer options, because nobody's going to buy your $80+ FX heavy feature if nothing you've written has been produced. Whether audiences are becoming more fickle, more savvy or more specific, films that aren’t strong four-quadrant competitors have little chance of being made.

Feature films isn’t the only medium feeling the crunch – television studios are developing fewer pilots. They aren’t able to justify the expense of producing 25 pilots a season, now they produce 5. Even if the show makes it to air, there’s no guarantee a network can or will support it into the future, just look at what happened to Southland. Fortunately for them, TNT was willing to pick up the show, but cable still can’t provide the same luxuries as those found in network television. Cable and pay-cable shows are increasing in quality and number, and garnering a greater audience. This has crowded the broadcast networks, taking much of their audience with more niche-targeted fare. Ultimately this means fewer jobs for everyone across the spectrum. Cable channels don’t have the resources to produce large numbers of pilots, and they are much more picky in the shows they produce, with stronger brands and more targeted content. Networks are becoming more choosey because they can’t afford the risk. And to top it off, unscripted content is filling many of the slots formerly occupied by written shows, i.e. NBC’s big push for Jay Leno in primetime.

So, there are fewer jobs for writers and crew because there are fewer scripted shows and fewer films and shows being developed each year. The range of shows is shrinking as TV content becomes more targeted and features have to focus on broad, international and franchiseable stories. And everyone is increasingly risk-averse because you can’t even count on a big name to pull in a big audience. About the only thing production companies are hungry for are already proven brands with a "built-in" audience , such as Harry Potter, Twilight and Tranformers. But even then, the box-office strength cannot be taken for granted (see GI Joe). $300M may seem like a lot, but when the movie costs $175M and half the box-office goes to the theaters, you have a problem.

GI Joe was a huge success as a web-series, however. Audience reaction in the US was resoundingly positive and increased expectations for the feature. You can debate whether it was more successful because audiences are smarter and the content was of higher quality, or because web series are free to watch, require less time and effort on behalf of the viewer and distribution costs are much smaller. Personally, I think it’s a combination of these factors – which is why I am very excited about the prospects of online media. Audiences are increasingly eschewing network programming schedules through Tivo, Hulu, Netflix and other on-demand systems. And the interface for online viewing is moving closer to the living room with on-demand viewing through your cable/satellite provider, and Netflix on Xbox Live and now through the PS3. Younger audiences will prefer quality web-series interface to television, and content producers need to adapt to this new world.

"Nobody knows anything"

- William Goldman

I had the pleasure of attending a Q&A with William Goldman and John Cleese last week, an entertaining couple of hours all around. The audience was full of working and aspiring screenwriters, and the common theme throughout most of the questions being asked was, "What should I be doing to best advance my career?"

Unfortunately, the common theme through most of the answers to these questions was, "I don't know."

They weren't being flip or disrespectful, in fact they seemed sympathetic and genuinely sorry they couldn't provide better advice. The realities in our current production climate, especially in Hollywood, are that things are terribly, terribly difficult for all writers, doubly or triply-so for unproven writers. Budgets are expanding for a variety of reasons, along with risk. The number of projects being developed is shrinking, along with potential returns. To top it all off, nobody knows what's going to work.

I agree with Mr. Goldman in his observation that the only real star we have left is Will Smith. Certainly we can name any number of stars: Tom Hanks, Adam Sandler, Johnny Depp – but nobody pulls anything resembling a guaranteed box office return. The star system upon which Hollywood films relies is falling apart.

The variety of genres being produced is also shrinking. Major and mini-majors are more and more focused on the large, global franchise films – because these are increasingly the only profitable films. Smaller films, while never strong box-office contenders, used to have a more well-defined business model. Today fewer and fewer are able to pull enough of an audience to justify their meager production budgets. As a result, independent production companies are only really interested in a small range of film types: high-concept and broad comedies. Other films don’t justify their marketing and distribution costs even if you are able to garner interest from a distributor. First-time writers have even fewer options, because nobody's going to buy your $80+ FX heavy feature if nothing you've written has been produced. Whether audiences are becoming more fickle, more savvy or more specific, films that aren’t strong four-quadrant competitors have little chance of being made.

Feature films isn’t the only medium feeling the crunch – television studios are developing fewer pilots. They aren’t able to justify the expense of producing 25 pilots a season, now they produce 5. Even if the show makes it to air, there’s no guarantee a network can or will support it into the future, just look at what happened to Southland. Fortunately for them, TNT was willing to pick up the show, but cable still can’t provide the same luxuries as those found in network television. Cable and pay-cable shows are increasing in quality and number, and garnering a greater audience. This has crowded the broadcast networks, taking much of their audience with more niche-targeted fare. Ultimately this means fewer jobs for everyone across the spectrum. Cable channels don’t have the resources to produce large numbers of pilots, and they are much more picky in the shows they produce, with stronger brands and more targeted content. Networks are becoming more choosey because they can’t afford the risk. And to top it off, unscripted content is filling many of the slots formerly occupied by written shows, i.e. NBC’s big push for Jay Leno in primetime.

So, there are fewer jobs for writers and crew because there are fewer scripted shows and fewer films and shows being developed each year. The range of shows is shrinking as TV content becomes more targeted and features have to focus on broad, international and franchiseable stories. And everyone is increasingly risk-averse because you can’t even count on a big name to pull in a big audience. About the only thing production companies are hungry for are already proven brands with a "built-in" audience , such as Harry Potter, Twilight and Tranformers. But even then, the box-office strength cannot be taken for granted (see GI Joe). $300M may seem like a lot, but when the movie costs $175M and half the box-office goes to the theaters, you have a problem.

GI Joe was a huge success as a web-series, however. Audience reaction in the US was resoundingly positive and increased expectations for the feature. You can debate whether it was more successful because audiences are smarter and the content was of higher quality, or because web series are free to watch, require less time and effort on behalf of the viewer and distribution costs are much smaller. Personally, I think it’s a combination of these factors – which is why I am very excited about the prospects of online media. Audiences are increasingly eschewing network programming schedules through Tivo, Hulu, Netflix and other on-demand systems. And the interface for online viewing is moving closer to the living room with on-demand viewing through your cable/satellite provider, and Netflix on Xbox Live and now through the PS3. Younger audiences will prefer quality web-series interface to television, and content producers need to adapt to this new world.